Majors Hold, Select Alts Break Out
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It was a relatively flat week for the majors, Bitcoin ranging between $74,000 and $78,000 and Ethereum holding between $2,000 and $2,100. The real action was in the altcoins, where the moves were driven by fundamentally strong narratives rather than speculation. The tokens leading the market were HYPE up 27%, NEAR up 58%, FET up 28%, and MORPHO up 27%. Revenue, AI, and privacy are the themes the market is rewarding right now and that is exactly what each of these protocols represents.

A headline moment came today when the largest BlackRock IBIT sell ever was identified in the order books, approximately $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin sold in a single execution, dropping the price roughly 2%. Bitcoin quickly absorbed it and recovered. The identity of the seller is still unknown and details are expected to surface later. A sale of that size being absorbed without a sustained breakdown is a sign of underlying bid strength in the market. 

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Hyperliquid — All Time Highs

Hyperliquid has reached all time highs above $60, one of our highest-conviction altcoins back at $7 when we first identified it. That is a move that speaks for itself, and what makes it more remarkable is that it has happened while the broader market has been one of the most difficult environments crypto has seen in years. We covered the recent catalysts driving this in last week's newsletter in detail, the Coinbase USDC treasury partnership adding $150 million in annual revenue, the SpaceX pre-market launch, and the SEC innovation exemption for tokenised securities. Those fundamentals are now being reflected in the price.

What has changed this week is the institutional picture. Hyperliquid spot ETF cumulative flows have surpassed $100 million across Bitwise (BHYP) and 21Shares (THYP), a meaningful signal that institutional capital is now actively allocating rather than watching from the sidelines. To put that into perspective, spot $HYPE ETFs have now absorbed 1.04% of HYPE's market cap in their first 10 trading days, the strongest debut of any spot crypto ETF to date, ahead of BTC at 0.59%, ETH at 0.41% and SOL at 0.31%. And Grayscale isn't even live yet. Total open positions hit a new all time high of 282,000 today. The platform is not just making new price highs, it is making new highs across every key metric simultaneously. Hyperliquid is now up 150% year to date while the broader altcoin market continues to struggle. The thesis from the beginning was simple, the strongest protocol with the strongest revenue and the strongest value accrual mechanism wins regardless of market conditions.

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NEAR Strength & Catalysts 

Among altcoins, NEAR Protocol has been one of the strongest performers recently, with $NEAR climbing around 80% over the past month, and TVL up 53%. The move has been driven by strong upgrades, growing ecosystem activity, and major momentum around AI and privacy narratives. NEAR recently announced a capacity of up to 1 million transactions per second, positioning it as one of the fastest blockchains for AI agents, DeFi, and high-throughput apps.

A major catalyst has been its exposure to the AI boom, especially following strong NVIDIA earnings that reinforced demand for AI infrastructure. NEAR is building toward AI-native applications where agents can own assets, transact, and operate across chains. It has also gained major traction through NEAR Intents, enabling seamless cross-chain swaps across 25+ networks, which has already processed over $19B in volume and $50M+ annual revenue contributes toward $NEAR buybacks.

On top of that, NEAR is pushing into privacy features and post-quantum cryptography, making it one of the first major chains preparing for future quantum security risks. Combined with endorsements from figures like Arthur Hayes, NEAR is benefiting from a strong mix of scalability, AI exposure, privacy innovation, and next-generation security.

Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund

• Grayscale recent launch of its decentralised AI fund has an allocation of over 46% to NEAR. 

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US-Iran — The Deal That Could Unlock Markets

A permanent peace deal is closer than it has been at any point since the conflict began, and the market is starting to price that in. Oil prices briefly fell below $90 per barrel for the first time since May 7 on ceasefire optimism, a signal that traders are beginning to position for a resolution. Polymarket currently prices a permanent deal by June 30 at 57%.

The path to a deal has not been smooth. Oil Prices reversed back toward $95 as US military strikes in Iran increased uncertainty, and the White House walked back expectations of an imminent announcement after Trump suggested one was coming shortly. Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State, confirmed talks need several more days and acknowledged the deal could still fall apart. 

What is worth noting is that war headlines have largely stopped moving crypto prices the way they did earlier in the year. The market has become numb to the back and forth. But a permanent deal, if and when it comes, is a different story entirely. Lower oil prices ease inflation, give the Fed room to cut rates sooner, and remove the single biggest macro overhang that has been capping risk asset rallies all year. A confirmed ceasefire with the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened would be one of the most bullish macro developments crypto could ask for right now.

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Nathan Allman — Ondo Finance

It is with sadness that we share the news of the passing of Nathan Allman, founder of Ondo Finance. Nathan built Ondo into the undisputed leader of real world asset tokenisation, 70% market share, over $4 billion in TVL, and more than $18 billion in cumulative volume. He did not just build a successful protocol. He helped prove that blockchain could build a genuine bridge between decentralised technology and real institutional finance at scale. That was not a given when he started.

Nathan was at the front of a movement that most of the industry only recently caught up to. Ondo's team have confirmed that Ian De Bode, longtime President who has been leading strategy and day to day operations for over two years, will step into the CEO role. The organisation Nathan built is in experienced hands. To the entire Ondo team and to Nathan's family and loved ones, our condolences.

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The S&P 500 All Time Highs — And Most Fund Managers Missed It

The S&P 500 continues to hit all time highs and is on track for its first nine week winning streak since 2023. On the surface that sounds like a great environment for professional fund managers. The reality is almost the opposite, just 25% of large-cap active equity mutual funds are beating the S&P 500 year to date. The lowest reading since 2021 and on track for the fourth consecutive annual decline.

To put that in context, even at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, 40% of active managers were still outperforming the index. Before the Iran War began, nearly 50% were beating it. Today, with equities at all time highs, three quarters of professional fund managers are trailing a passive index.

The uncomfortable implication is that in a market increasingly driven by AI concentration, geopolitical macro, and a handful of dominant themes, the ability to pick stocks is becoming less valuable than identifying the right narrative early and positioning accordingly. The same dynamic applies to crypto. The tokens up this week are not random, they are the ones sitting at the intersection of the strongest themes in the market. That is not luck. That is thesis.

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